Centerra Gold Reports 2010 Results; Fourth Quarter Earnings $153 million or $0.65 per share (This news release contains forward-looking information that is subject to assumptions and risk factors set out on page 11 and in our
NEWS RELEASE Centerra Gold Reports 2010 Results;
Fourth Quarter Earnings $153 million or $0.65 per share
(This news release contains forward-looking information that is subject to assumptions and risk factors set out on page 11 and in our Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-looking Information on page 21. All figures are in United States dollars.)
To view the 2010 Management’s Discussion and Analysis and the Audited Financial Statements and Notes for the year-ended December 31, 2010, please visit the following link:
http://media3.marketwire.com/docs/cg0224.pdf
Toronto, Canada, February 24, 2011: Centerra Gold Inc. (TSX: CG) today reported fourth quarter 2010 net earnings of $153.1 million or $0.65 per common share based on revenues of $323.3 million, compared to net earnings of $140.0 million or $0.60 per common share on revenues of $323.9 million in the same quarter of 2009.
Centerra’s consolidated gold production for the fourth quarter of 2010 totalled 249,866 ounces at a total cash cost of $311 per ounce compared to 296,048 ounces at a total cash cost of $276 per ounce in the corresponding quarter of 2009. During the fourth quarter 2010, production was lower at both Boroo and Kumtor compared to the fourth quarter of 2009.
2010 Fourth Quarter Highlights
- Proven and probable mineral reserves increased to 8.2 million contained ounces of gold as a result of reserve increases at Kumtor and Gatsuurt.
Kumtor’s open pit mine life extended to 2021.
- Fourth quarter revenue increased 180% over the third quarter to $323 million.
- Cash provided by operations of $137 million or $0.58 per share in the fourth quarter.
- Entered into a $150 million three-year revolving credit facility with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
Cash provided by operations in the fourth quarter of 2010, net of working capital changes and other operating items was $137.1 million compared to $188.6 million in the fourth quarter of 2009 as a result of lower gold sales, higher working capital levels, partially offset by the higher average realized price of gold ($1,375 per ounce vs. $1,129 per ounce in the fourth quarter of 2009).
For 2010, the Company recorded net earnings of $322.6 million or $1.37 per common share on revenues of $846.5 million reflecting a 22% increase in realized gold price in the year and the gain from the sale of the
1 University Avenue, Suite 1500 Toronto, ON M5J 2P1 tel 416-204-1953 fax 416-204-1954 www.centerragold.com REN property of $34.9 million. Net earnings for 2009 were $60.3 million or $0.27 per share on revenues of $685.5 million, after reflecting a charge for unusual items of $49.3 million relating to the Kyrgyz settlement. Consolidated 2010 gold production was 678,941 ounces at a total cash cost of $444 per ounce, compared with consolidated gold production of 675,592 ounces at a total cash cost of $459 per ounce for the prior year. (Total cash cost is a non-GAAP measure and is discussed under “Non-GAAP Measures” in this news release.)
During 2010, cash provided by operations was $271.4 million or $1.15 per share up from $245.6 million or $1.08 per share in 2009, reflecting the higher net earnings, primarily as a result of the higher average gold price realized.
Commentary
Stephen Lang, President and CEO of Centerra Gold commented, “Our operations generated strong cash flow during the quarter of $137 million and Centerra ended the year with a balance sheet that includes $413 million in cash and short-term investments and no debt outstanding.”
“For 2011, consolidated gold production is expected to be in the 600,000 to 650,000 ounce range and total cash costs are expected in the $460 to $495 per ounce range. The production profile at Kumtor differs significantly from recent years in that Kumtor is expected to have consistent quarterly production throughout the year.”
“The Mongolian Parliament continues to assess the water and forest legislation enacted in 2009 and we remain optimistic that this issue will ultimately be resolved and Gatsuurt will move forward. However, as we are uncertain regarding the timing we have not included Gatsuurt in our 2011 outlook,” he concluded.
Year-end Reserves and Resources Reserves
As reported in the Company’s news release of February 7, 2011, Centerra’s proven and probable reserves, as of December 31, 2010, increased 1.7 million contained ounces (before accounting for 2010 production) to 8.2 million ounces of contained gold, compared to 7.3 million ounces as of December 31, 2009. This represents an increase of 24% before accounting for 885,000 contained ounces processed at Kumtor and Boroo during 2010. All 2010 year-end reserves were estimated using a gold price of $1,000 per ounce compared to $825 per ounce at December 31, 2009.
Resources
As of December 31, 2010, Centerra’s measured and indicated resources increased by 18% or 739,000 ounces over the December 31, 2009 figures to total 4.9 million ounces of contained gold, compared to 4.1 million contained ounces as of December 31, 2009.
The Company’s inferred resources total 3.5 million ounces of contained gold a decrease by 34,000 contained ounces of gold year-over-year. The majority of the inferred resources are at Kumtor, in the high-grade underground SB Zone, which totals 1.4 million contained ounces of gold with an average grade of 15.3 g/t and in the high-grade underground Stockwork Zone which totals 638,000 contained ounces of gold with an average grade of 12.1 g/t.
Financial and Operating Summary
Highlights
| Three Months Ended December 31 | Year Ended December 31 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financial and Operating Summary | 2010 | 2009 | % Change | 2010 | 2009 | % Change |
| Revenue - $ millions | 323.3 | 323.9 | (0%) | 846.5 | 685.5 | 23% |
| Cost of sales - $ millions (1) | 68.7 | 74.1 | (7%) | 263.9 | 295.9 | (11%) |
| Earnings before unusual items - $ millions (2) | 153.1 | 140.0 | 9% | 322.6 | 109.6 | 194% |
| Earnings per common share before unusual items - $ basic and diluted | 0.65 | 0.60 | 8% | 1.37 | 0.48 | 185% |
| Unusual items (gain) - $ millions | - | - | - | - | 49.3 | (100%) |
| Net earnings - $ millions | 153.1 | 140.0 | 9% | 322.6 | 60.3 | 435% |
| Earnings per common share - $ basic and diluted | 0.65 | 0.60 | 8% | 1.37 | 0.27 | 407% |
| Cash provided by operations - $ millions | 137.1 | 188.6 | (27%) | 271.4 | 245.6 | 11% |
| Capital expenditures -$ millions | 55.4 | 28.7 | 93% | 212.0 | 89.8 | 136% |
| Weighted average common shares outstanding - basic (thousands) (3) | 235,181 | 234,857 | 0% | 235,488 | 226,699 | 4% |
| Weighted average common shares outstanding - diluted (thousands) (3) | 235,657 | 235,379 | 0% | 235,862 | 226,801 | 4% |
| Average gold spot price - $/oz | 1,367 | 1,100 | 24% | 1,225 | 973 | 26% |
| Average realized gold price - $/oz | 1,375 | 1,129 | 22% | 1,235 | 1,013 | 22% |
| Gold sold – ounces | 235,191 | 286,888 | (18%) | 685,389 | 676,394 | 1% |
| Cost of sales - $/oz sold | 292 | 258 | 13% | 385 | 438 | (12%) |
| Gold produced – ounces | 249,866 | 296,048 | (16%) | 678,941 | 675,592 | 0% |
| Total cash cost(4) (5) - $/oz produced | 311 | 276 | 13% | 444 | 459 | (3%) |
| Total production cost(4) (5) - $/oz produced | 405 | 384 | 5% | 560 | 607 | (8%) |
(1) Cost of sales excludes regional office administration.
(2) Net earnings before unusual items is a non-GAAP measure and is discussed under “Non-GAAP Measures”.
(3) As of December 31, 2010, the Company had 235,869,397 common shares issued and outstanding.
(4) Total cash cost and total production cost are non-GAAP measures and are discussed under “Non-GAAP Measures”.
(5) As a result of Kumtor's Restated Investment Agreement, total cash cost and total production cost per ounce measures exclude operating and revenue-based taxes.
Revenue in the fourth quarter of 2010 was $323.3 million compared to $323.9 million during the same period the previous year. Lower ounces sold in the fourth quarter of 2010 were fully offset by a higher realized gold price ($1,375 per ounce in the fourth quarter of 2010 versus $1,129 per ounce in the fourth quarter of 2009).
The Company produced 249,866 ounces in the fourth quarter of 2010, 16% less than the same period in 2009. The lower gold production was primarily due to lower production at both Boroo and Kumtor. The Boroo production in the fourth quarter of 2010 was lower by 27,520 ounces or 56% compared to the same period of 2009 due to lower grades and lower recovery of the ore processed by the mill and the heap leach facility remains idle. The Kumtor production in the fourth quarter of 2010 was 8% lower than the comparable period of 2009 due to lower mill throughput (down 8%) mainly as a result of the labour dispute and related ten day work stoppage.
Total cash cost per ounce produced was $311 in the fourth quarter of 2010 compared to $276 per ounce in the same period of 2009. Cash operating costs of $77.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2010 were $4.1 million or 7% lower than the $81.8 million in the same period in 2009. However, gold production was down by 16% or 46,182 ounces for the same period, which more than offset the favourable variance coming from the reduced cash operating costs. (Total cash cost is a non-GAAP measure and is discussed under “Non-GAAP Measure
- Total Cash Cost.”)
Capital expenditures in the fourth quarter of 2010 amounted to $55.4 million of which $9.4 million was spent and accrued on sustaining capital projects and $46.0 million invested in growth capital. The major growth components are related to the underground development at Kumtor ($9.5 million), the capitalized prestripping for cut-back 12B ($14.7 million), the purchase of Liebherr shovels ($9.7 million), CAT 789 haul truck purchases ($7.1 million), and D45 drill purchases ($2.5 million) at Kumtor. In addition, the Company spent $1.2 million at Boroo and the Gatsuurt development project. Capital expenditures in the same quarter of 2009 were $28.7 million, which included $5.7 million of sustaining capital and $23.0 million of growth capital.
Exploration expenditures for the fourth quarter were $11.2 million dollars compared to $8.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2009 reflecting higher spending at Kumtor and on exploration projects in Mongolia. For a detailed update on fourth quarter exploration activities please refer to the Company’s news release of February 7, 2011.
On November 16, 2010, Centerra entered into a $150 million three-year revolving credit facility (the “Credit Facility”) with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (“EBRD”) as the sole lender. The interest payable on any outstanding borrowings is LIBOR plus 2.9%. The Credit Facility is for general corporate purposes, including working capital, investments and acquisitions and capital expenditures to finance the development of the Company’s existing properties in the Kyrgyz Republic and Mongolia, and for future investments and acquisitions in other EBRD countries of operations. Availability under the Credit Facility is subject to customary conditions precedent.
Full Year 2010
For the full year 2010, revenue increased by $161 million, or 23%, to $846.5 million compared to $685.5 million in the same period of 2009 primarily due to a 22% increase in the realized gold price. The average realized gold price for 2010 was $1,235 per ounce compared to $1,013 per ounce in the same period of 2009 reflecting higher spot prices for gold throughout the year and the concentration of sales during the fourth quarter of 2010 when gold prices were higher. Gold sold in 2010 totalled 685,389 ounces (568,390 ounces from Kumtor and 116,999 ounces from Boroo), which was higher than 2009 ounces sold of 676,394 (511,092 ounces from Kumtor and 165,302 ounces from Boroo).
Gold production was 678,941 ounces in 2010 compared to the 675,592 ounces reported in 2009. This primarily represents an 8% increase in gold production at Kumtor due to higher grades and higher recoveries processed through the mill. Production at Boroo was 26% lower in 2010 as a result of lower head grades and recoveries through the mill as well as lower contribution from the heap leach operation which remained idle pending issuance of a final operating permit by the government authorities. At Boroo, the ore became increasingly refractory during 2010 and the grades and recoveries continued to decline throughout the year. Mining activities at Boroo ceased December 1, 2010.
Total cash cost per ounce produced for 2010 decreased to $444 compared to $459 per ounce in 2009. (Total cash cost per ounce produced is a non-GAAP measure and is discussed under “Non-GAAP Measures”.) The decrease in 2010 reflects the impact of lower operating costs and higher production at Kumtor, partially offset by the impact of lower production at Boroo as discussed in the “Operations Update” for Kumtor and Boroo.
For the year 2010, capital expenditures totalled $212.0 million of which $44.0 million was spent and accrued on sustaining capital projects and $168.0 million invested in growth capital. The major growth capital components are related to spending at Kumtor mainly on fleet expansion and pre-stripping of waste ($109.5 million), the SB and Stockwork Zone underground development at Kumtor ($36.9 million), the Gatsuurt development project ($17.2 million) and raising the tailings dam at Boroo ($4.4 million). For the full year 2009, capital expenditures totaled $89.8 million, which included $40.1 million of sustaining capital and $49.7 million of growth capital.
Exploration expenditures in 2010 were $31.3 million compared to $25.0 million in 2009 reflecting higher spending in Mongolia and an increase in exploration activities elsewhere.
Operations Update Summary of Key Operating Results
| Three Months Ended December 31 | Year Ended December 31 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kumtor Operating Results | 2010 | 2009 | % Change | 2010 | 2009 | % Change |
| Revenue - $ millions | 288.9 | 263.1 | 10% | 704.3 | 523.7 | 34% |
| Gold sold – ounces | 209,929 | 231,799 | (9%) | 568,390 | 511,092 | 11% |
| Average realized gold price – $/oz | 1,376 | 1,135 | 21% | 1,239 | 1,025 | 21% |
| Cost of sales - $ millions (1) | 54.4 | 57.4 | (5%) | 213.2 | 236.5 | (10%) |
| Cost of sales - $/oz sold | 259 | 248 | 5% | 375 | 463 | (19%) |
| Tonnes mined - 000s | 29,561 | 25,995 | 14% | 116,466 | 115,544 | 1% |
| Tonnes ore mined – 000s | 2,812 | 1,759 | 60% | 5,765 | 4,464 | 29% |
| Tonnes milled - 000s | 1,303 | 1,414 | (8%) | 5,594 | 5,780 | (3%) |
| Average mill head grade - g/t (2) | 7.06 | 6.92 | 2% | 4.02 | 3.74 | 7% |
| Recovery - % | 84.1 | 84.4 | (0%) | 79.5 | 76.7 | 4% |
| Gold produced – ounces | 228,433 | 247,095 | (8%) | 567,802 | 525,042 | 8% |
| Total cash cost (3) (4) - $/oz produced | 262 | 245 | 7% | 411 | 460 | (11%) |
| Total production cost (3) (4)-$/oz produced | 349 | 346 | 1% | 515 | 588 | (12%) |
| Capital expenditures - $ millions | 53.3 | 16.0 | 232% | 186.5 | 73.4 | 154% |
| Boroo Operating Results | ||||||
| Revenue - $ millions | 34.4 | 60.8 | (43%) | 142.2 | 161.8 | (12%) |
| Gold sold – ounces | 25,262 | 55,089 | (54%) | 116,999 | 165,302 | (29%) |
| Average realized gold price - $/oz | 1,362 | 1,104 | 23% | 1,215 | 979 | 24% |
| Cost of sales - $ millions (1) | 14.3 | 16.7 | (14%) | 50.7 | 59.4 | (15%) |
| Cost of sales - $/oz sold | 566 | 303 | 87% | 434 | 359 | 21% |
| Total tonnes mined - 000s | 2,717 | 3,624 | (25%) | 11,358 | 12,396 | (8%) |
| Tonnes mined heap leach – 000s | 196 | 1,170 | (83%) | 1,694 | 3,481 | (51%) |
| Tonnes ore mined direct mill feed -000’s | 325 | 1,250 | (74%) | 2,399 | 2,913 | (18%) |
| Tonnes ore milled - 000s | 633 | 628 | 1% | 2,466 | 2,077 | 19% |
| Average mill head grade - g/t (2) | 1.53 | 2.91 | (47%) | 1.38 | 2.56 | (46%) |
| Recovery - % | 69.0 | 79.1 | (13%) | 71.8 | 72.9 | (2%) |
| Gold produced – ounces | 21,433 | 48,953 | (56%) | 111,139 | 150,550 | (26%) |
| Total cash cost (3) - $/oz produced | 836 | 435 | 93% | 611 | 456 | 34% |
| Total production cost (3)-$/oz produced | 994 | 634 | 57% | 786 | 673 | 17% |
| Capital expenditures (Boroo) - $ millions | 1.0 | 2.3 | (56%) | 7.9 | 3.3 | 140% |
| Capital expenditures (Gatsuurt) - $ millions | 0.9 | 10.3 | (91%) | 17.2 | 12.9 | 34% |
(1)
Cost of sales for 2010 and its comparative years exclude regional office administration.
(2)
g/t means grams gold per tonne.
(3)
Total cash cost and total production cost are non-GAAP Measures and are discussed under “Non-GAAP Measures”.
(4)
Kumtor’s total cash cost and total production cost per ounce measures exclude operating and revenue-based taxes.
Kumtor
At the Kumtor mine, gold production was 228,433 ounces in the fourth quarter of 2010, compared to 247,095 ounce in the same quarter in 2009. Lower mill throughput during the quarter (down 8%) mainly as a result of the labour dispute and related ten day work stoppage resulted in 18,662 ounces lower gold production compared to the same period of 2009.
The mill head grade in the fourth quarter of 2010 averaged 7.06 g/t with a recovery of 84.1% compared to 6.92 g/t with a recovery of 84.4% in the same quarter of 2009. The gold production increased 232% in fourth quarter of 2010 from the third quarter of 2010, as the high-grade SB Zone was mined in the quarter.
Total cash cost per ounce produced, a non-GAAP measure of production efficiency, was $262 in the fourth quarter compared to $245 a year earlier. The quarter-over-quarter increase in total cash cost was primarily due to lower gold production partially offset by lower operating costs. Operating costs decreased by $0.9 million or 2% primarily due to lower mining costs (down $2.5 million) partially offset by higher milling costs ($0.7 million) and higher site administration costs ($0.9 million). The lower mining costs of $2.5 million reflect an allocation to capital of $10.9 million of mining costs expended on the pre-stripping of cut-back 12B, partially offset by higher costs for diesel fuel ($4.2 million) as a result of the introduction of the fuel export duty by the Russian Government, higher national labour costs ($2.2 million) due to the new collective bargaining agreement, higher maintenance costs ($1.0 million) and higher tire costs ($0.4 million) due to the expanded mine fleet, and higher camp catering costs ($0.6 million). The milling and site administration costs increased due to higher national labour, power and diesel costs.
Exploration expenditures totaled $3.7 million for the fourth quarter of 2010, up from $2.8 million in the fourth quarter 2009, as a result of increased activity.
During the fourth quarter of 2010, capital expenditures were $53.3 million, which included $8.5 million of sustaining capital spent mainly on the heavy equipment overhaul program ($6.1 million) and shear key, buttress and tailings dam construction ($1.3 million). Growth capital investment totalled $44.8 million mainly on pre-strip capitalization ($14.7 million), the underground development ($9.5 million), purchase of Liebherr shovels ($9.7 million), purchase of CAT 789 haul trucks ($7.1 million) and other equipment and projects ($3.8 million).
The SB Zone underground decline (Decline #1) has now advanced a total of 1,080 metres. Poor ground conditions limited the advance rate in the quarter. Kumtor’s new life-of-mine plan will expand the open pit and deepen the final ultimate open pit by about 24 metres, resulting in the need to reorient Decline #1, moving the decline further to the south. The re-alignment will require that the decline be driven deeper via a ramp resulting in a 9 to 12 month delay to access the SB Zone for delineation drilling to late 2012. Exploration and geotechnical drilling will continue in the first quarter of 2011. Overall, it is estimated that 600 metres has been added to the required development of Decline #1, 250 metres for the re-alignment and 350 metres to achieve the greater depth.
The Stockwork Zone underground decline (Decline #2) has advanced a total of 744 metres (including the second heading for exploration). Decline #2 will facilitate the access to the Stockwork Zone and the SB Zone from the north for further exploration and delineation drilling. The second heading in decline #2 established for the exploration and delineation drilling program for the Stockwork Zone has advanced 200 metres toward the north. Drill bays have been established along the planned 400 metres access drift. Poor ground conditions in the headings limited the advance rate in the latter portion of the fourth quarter 2010. Exploration and delineation drilling of the Stockwork Zone resource commenced in the fourth quarter of 2010 as planned and will continue into 2011.
Boroo & Gatsuurt
At the Boroo mine in the fourth quarter of 2010, gold production was 21,433 ounces 56% lower than the same period in 2009. The lower gold production was primarily due to lower mill head grade of 1.53 g/t and lower recovery of 69.0%, compared to the fourth quarter of 2009 mill head grade of 2.91 g/t and a recovery of 79.1%.
Total cash costs per ounce produced, a non-GAAP measure of production efficiency, increased to $836 in the fourth quarter of 2010 from $435 in the fourth quarter of 2009. The quarter-over-quarter increase in unit cash cost per ounce produced was due to lower gold production ($557 per ounce) offset by lower operating costs and lower royalties ($156 per ounce) in the 2010 period. Royalties decreased in 2010 by $1.4 million due to 43% lower sales in the 2010 quarter. Operating costs at Boroo were down $2.3 million quarter-over-quarter primarily due to reduced mining ($1.2 million) and heap leaching ($1.4 million) costs partially offset by higher milling costs ($0.2 million). The mining costs were lower as Boroo ceased mining activities at the end of November 2010. Heap leaching costs were $1.4 million lower as no crushing and stacking activities occurred in the fourth quarter of 2010, while in the same quarter of 2009 Boroo performed limited activities and incurred related costs.
During the fourth quarter of 2010 exploration expenditures in Mongolia increased to $3.4 million from $1.7 million in the same period in 2009. The exploration work in the fourth quarter 2010 was conducted at the Gatsuurt, Ulaan Bulag and other properties along the Yeroogol trend and on land holdings acquired in eastern Mongolia.
During the fourth quarter of 2010, capital expenditures at Boroo were $1.0 million, $0.7 million of sustaining capital and $0.3 million of growth capital on raising the main cell of the tailings dam to process Boroo ores.
At the Gatsuurt project, $0.9 million of growth capital was spent in the quarter primarily related to completing the site preparation. Road construction to the Gatsuurt project is complete and all site preparation is complete. Minimal capital spending is planned on the Gatsuurt project going forward while waiting for the final approvals and regulatory commissioning to commence mining.
2011 Outlook
Centerra’s gold production and unit costs for 2011 are forecast as follows:
| 2011 Production Forecast (ounces of gold) | 2011 Total Cash Cost(1) ($ per ounce produced) | |
|---|---|---|
| Kumtor | 550,000 – 600,000 | 430 – 460 |
| Boroo | 50,000 | 865 |
| Consolidated | 600,000 – 650,000 | 460 – 495 |
(1) Total cash cost is a non-GAAP measure and includes mine operating costs such as mining, processing, regional office administration, royalties and production taxes (except at Kumtor where revenue-based taxes are excluded), but exclude amortization, reclamation costs, financing costs, capital development and exploration.
Centerra’s 2011 consolidated gold production is forecast to be 600,000 to 650,000 ounces. Total cash cost in 2011 is expected to be $460 to $495 per ounce produced. Total cash cost is a non-GAAP measure and is discussed under “Non-GAAP Measures”.
The Kumtor mine is expected to produce 550,000 to 600,000 ounces in 2011. The production profile at Kumtor differs significantly from recent years in that it is expected to have consistent quarterly production throughout the year. Kumtor’s total cash cost for 2011 is expected to be $430 to $460 per ounce produced.
At the Boroo mine, gold production is forecast to be 50,000 ounces and assumes no mining activities at Boroo in 2011. Boroo’s total cash cost is expected to be $865 per ounce produced in 2011. The 2011 forecast also assumes no production from the heap leach facility or the Gatsuurt project due to uncertainties with permitting, final approvals and regulatory commissioning. The Boroo mill is expected to process the remaining direct mill feed stockpiled ore at Boroo until the end of May 2011 with an average grade of approximately 1.44 g/t. For the balance of the year, the Boroo mill is expected to process stockpiled material with grades between 0.76 – 0.81 g/t. At the current reserve gold price assumption of $1,000 per ounce, the Boroo operation could potentially continue to feed the mill for at least a further two years utilizing existing low-grade stockpiles.
Receipt of the final heap leach operating permit would add approximately 3,500 to 4,000 ounces of gold a month. At Gatsuurt, the project is ready to begin production of the oxide ore on receipt of the final approvals and regulatory commissioning.
2011 Exploration Expenditures
Exploration expenditures of $34 million are planned for 2011, an increase from $31 million in 2010. The 2011 program will continue the aggressive exploration work at the Kumtor mine together with an increase in the exploration in the Kumtor district with target definition and drilling programs on the properties acquired in 2010 and planned expenditures of about $13 million. In Mongolia $5 million is allocated for target definition and drill programs on the Gatsuurt project and on our land holdings along the Yeroogol trend and in eastern Mongolia.
In 2011, drilling programs will continue on the Kara Beldyr project in Russia to determine the resource potential of the property. Drilling programs will also continue in Turkey and Nevada. In addition, generative programs will continue in Russia, China, Turkey and the U.S. to increase the pipeline of projects that the Company is developing to meet its longer term growth targets.
2011 Capital Expenditures
The capital expenditures for 2011 are estimated to be $213 million, including $38 million of sustaining capital and $175 million of growth capital.
Capital expenditures include:
| Projects | 2011 Growth Capital ($ millions) | 2011 Sustaining Capital ($ millions) |
|---|---|---|
| Kumtor mine | 170 | 36 |
| Mongolia | 5 | 1 |
| Corporate | - | 1 |
| Consolidated Total | 175 | 38 |
Kumtor
At Kumtor, during 2011 total capital expenditures are forecast to be $206 million including $36 million of sustaining capital. The largest sustaining capital spending will be on the major overhaul maintenance of the heavy duty mine equipment ($19 million), expenditures for the shear key, buttress and tailings dam construction works ($5 million) and for equipment replacement and other items ($12 million).
Growth capital investment at Kumtor for 2011 is forecast at $170 million primarily for the purchase of seven CAT 789 haul trucks ($21 million), purchase of remaining equipment for the North Wall expansion project ($28 million), pre-strip costs related to the development of the open pit ($63 million) and a waste dump expansion project ($3 million). Also, $52 million is included in growth capital investment for the underground growth capital, of which $40 million has been allocated to advance the two underground declines to develop the SB Zone and Stockwork Zone, as well as, $5 million for delineation drilling and $6 million for capital purchases and other costs in 2011.
Boroo & Gatsuurt (Mongolia)
At Boroo, 2011 sustaining capital expenditures are expected to be $1 million and growth capital is forecast at $5 million primarily for the tailings dam construction to expand the capacity of the Boroo tailings facility to allow treatment of waste.
No capital for the development of the deeper sulphide ores at Gatsuurt has been forecast and will only be invested following successful regulatory commissioning of the Gatsuurt project. The engineering and construction of the bio-oxidation facility to be located at the Boroo mill, which is needed to treat Gatsuurt sulphide ores, will be restarted only after the approval to begin mining at Gatsuurt has been received from the Government of Mongolia.
Corporate Administration
Corporate and administration expenses for 2011 are forecast at $44 million.
Taxes
Pursuant to the Restated Investment Agreement Kumtor’s operations are not subject to corporate income taxes. The agreement replaced the prior tax regime applicable to the Kumtor project with a simplified regime effective January 1, 2008. This simplified regime, which assesses tax at 13% on gross revenue (plus 1% for the Issyk-Kul Oblast Development Fund effective January 2009), was approved and enacted by the parliament of the Kyrgyz Republic on April 30, 2009.
The corporate income tax rate for Centerra’s Mongolian subsidiary, Boroo Gold Company is 25% for taxable income over 3 billion Mongolian tugriks (approximately $2.4 million at the 2010 year-end foreign exchange rate) with a tax rate of 10% for taxable income up to that amount.
Production, cost and capital forecasts for 2011 are forward-looking information and are based on key assumptions and subject to material risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially and which are discussed under the headings “Major Assumptions”, “Kyrgyz Republic”, “Update on Mongolian Legislation”, “New Graduated Royalty Fee” and “Caution Regarding Forward-Looking Information”.
Sensitivities
Centerra’s revenues, earnings and cash flows for 2011 are sensitive to changes in certain variables and the Company has estimated their impact on revenues, net earnings and cash from operations.
| Change | Impact on ($ millions) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Costs | Revenues | Cash flow | Earnings before income tax | ||
| Gold Price | $50/oz | 4.8 | 31.6 | 26.8 | 26.8 |
| Diesel Fuel (1) | 10% | 4.2 | - | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| Kyrgyz som | 1 som | 1.9 | - | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Mongolian tugrik | 25 tugrik | 0.6 | - | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Canadian dollar | 10 cents | 3.7 | - | 3.7 | 3.7 |
(1) a 10% change in diesel fuel price equals $7/oz produced
Major Assumptions
The following material assumptions have been used to forecast production, operating and capital costs and future capital expenditures:
- a gold price of $1,300 per ounce,
- exchange rates:
- $1USD:$1.03 CAD
- $1USD:48.50 Kyrgyz Som
- $1USD:1,250 Mongolian Tugrik
- $1USD:0.74 Euro
- diesel fuel price assumption:
- $0.78/litre at Kumtor
- $0.94/litre at Boroo
The assumed diesel price of $0.78/litre at Kumtor includes a customs export duty imposed by the Russian authorities on the diesel fuel exported to the Kyrgyz Republic. Russia imposed a customs duty of approximately $194 per tonne on gasoline and diesel fuel exports to the Kyrgyz Republic that went into effect on April 1, 2010. The customs export duty for 2011 is assumed to be at approximately $0.18/litre or $212.77 per tonne of diesel fuel; however, there have been public statements made by Kyrgyz authorities that it could be revoked retroactive to January 1, 2011. Should the Russian authorities revoke the customs export duty, Kumtor’s cash costs are expected to decrease by approximately $17 million annually.
Diesel fuel is sourced from separate Russian suppliers for Kumtor and Boroo and only loosely correlates with world oil prices. The diesel fuel price assumptions were made when the price of oil was approximately $84 per barrel.
Other important assumptions include the following:
- any recurrence of political and civil unrest in the Kyrgyz Republic will not impact operations, including movement of people, supplies and gold shipments to and from the Kumtor mine,
- grades and recoveries at Kumtor will remain consistent with the life-of-mine plan to achieve the forecast gold production,
- the dewatering program at Kumtor continues to produce the expected results and the water management system works as planned,
- the remedial plan to deal with the Kumtor waste and ice movement continues to be successful ( see "Kumtor Mine - Remedial Plan to Manage the High Movement Area" in the Company's December 7, 2009 news release),
- no unplanned delays in or interruption of scheduled production from our mines, including due to civil unrest, natural phenomena, labour, regulatory or political disputes, equipment breakdown or other developmental and operational risks,
- certain issues at Boroo raised by the General Department of Specialized Inspection ("SSIA") concerning state alluvial reserves, the production and sale of gold from the Boroo heap leach facility and other matters will be resolved through negotiation without material adverse impact on the Company, see "Other Corporate Developments, Mongolia, Mongolian Legislation" in the Company’s MD&A for the period ended December 31, 2010,
- no further suspension of Boroo's operating licenses, and
- all necessary permits, licenses and approvals are received in a timely manner.
Production and cost forecasts and capital estimates are forward-looking information and are based on key assumptions and subject to material risk factors. If any event arising from these risks occurs, the Company’s business, prospects, financial condition, results of operations or cash flows could be adversely affected. Additional risks and uncertainties not currently known to the Company, or that are currently deemed immaterial, may also materially and adversely affect the Company's business operations, prospects, financial condition, and results of operations or cash flows. See the sections entitled “Recent Developments” and “Risk Factors” in the Company’s most recently filed annual information form, available on SEDAR at www.sedar.com and see also the discussion below under the heading “Cautionary Note Regarding Forwardlooking Information”.
Kyrgyz Republic
On October 10, 2010, parliamentary elections were held in the Kyrgyz Republic, with five parties receiving sufficient votes to be represented in the Parliament. In mid-December 2010, a coalition government was formed by three parties and on December 18, 2010, the parliament elected a speaker and Mr. Almazbek Atambayev was approved as Prime Minister of the Kyrgyz Republic.
On October 1, 2010, unionized employees of the Company’s Kumtor mine in the Kyrgyz Republic commenced an illegal work stoppage which continued until October 10, 2010 when employees returned to work. The then current collective agreement, which was scheduled to expire on December 31, 2010, was replaced with a new collective agreement that was ratified by the union. The new collective agreement will expire on December 31, 2012. During the ten-day work stoppage, production at the Kumtor mine was suspended.
Kumtor Operating Company (“KOC”), the Company’s Kyrgyz Republic operating subsidiary, pays Kyrgyz Republic Social Fund (“Social Fund”) contributions in respect of the base wages of its national employees. In late 2010, the Social Fund notified KOC of its position that KOC should pay contributions to the Social Fund not only in respect of base wages but also in respect of the premium compensation that KOC is required to pay employees for work at high-altitude. A potential adjustment to the Social Fund contribution for the 2010 year as a result of this matter, could require an additional payment ranging from zero to $7.4 million. The position of the Social Fund is inconsistent with its past practices and with prior audits of KOC, completed as recently as 2009. KOC plans to continue to vigorously dispute the Social Fund’s position. At this time, the